How Orange County Plays an Important Role Statewide…
By Dorothy Cociu, RHU, REBC, GBA, RPA, OCAHU VP Communications & Public Affairs
Well, we made it through the negative TV ad campaigns and first round of elections in 2018… The Primaries are over, and we are now anticipating the mid-term elections in November. So how did our primaries turn out and what do we have to look forward to (or cringe about) in November? Some questions are now answered… And many more remain.
The Governor’s Race
Obviously the biggest race was the Governor’s race, and the primaries resulted in the final candidates of Gavin Newsome (D), Lt Governor, and republican business man John Cox, who was supported by President Trump. Many had thought Antonio Villaraigosa (D—Los Angeles former mayor) could advance for an all democratic race, but it looks like republican conservatives went out to vote in the primaries and it made a difference. Gavin Newsome is expected to win the governor’s race, which is not good for the health insurance industry, as he has been historically a single payer supporter (see Ryan Dorigan’s comments in the Single Payer Update on page 14).
I asked newly elected CAHU President, Dave Fear Jr. what his thoughts were on the Governor’s race. “I read an interesting article the other day that made some valid points of why we should not assume Newsome will run away with it. The point was that if you don’t think California is headed in the right direction, you can’t blame Republicans, since everything is controlled by Democrats. If people want a change, voting for someone other then a Democrat would make sense. However, I recently heard John Cox interviewed on the radio and I would say, ‘nope, he doesn’t have a chance’. I was not impressed. Perhaps a more dynamic, articulate, inspiring candidate from the Republican Party could pull off the upset but none of those characteristics describe John Cox.
“With that, I do think the Governor Newsome will have to take a step back on his far left pandering. If you go back and read what Gavin said about supporting single payer, he chose his words very carefully. I think he did so because he will have to back away from his announced support of the Single Payer dream being put forth by the CNA. That doesn’t mean he won’t try for a version of the San Francisco model or some other progressive model to provide universal coverage for health care.”
Key Race for our Industry—The Insurance Commissioner Race
CAHU believes that the most important race this November is the election of Insurance Commissioner. According to Dave Fear, Jr, our largest concern should be “Independent Steve Poizner vs Author of SB562 Ricardo Lara. With Newsome as Governor, Toni Atkins as Senate President pro-Tem and the possibility that Lara would be the insurance commissioner, that is the trifecta of single payer advocates.” That, of course, is very dangerous for our members, and our industry overall. Although CAHU does not support individual candidates, this is one election that as members, you may want to think about, and you may want to pass on to your friends and clients the need to support Steve Poizner.
The Repeal of California Senator Josh Newman—Why Orange County Plays Such an Important Role Statewide—Ending the Super-majority in the Senate
Although recalls are rare in California (only 5 since 1913 according to the LA Times June 5, 2018), this one was successful. Democratic Senator Josh Newman, a resident of Fullerton, who narrowly defeated Republican Ling Ling Chang in 2016 for the seat, was recalled in the California Primary Elections on June 5, and was replaced by Chang.
This race was a targeted race by the Republican Party in 2017, shortly after a vote that helped pass a 12 cent per gallon increase to the gas tax. The republican party felt Newman was the most vulnerable democrat, who was elected in an historically conservative republican area of Orange County and surrounding counties (serving Anaheim, Brea, Buena Park, Chino Hills, Cypress, Diamond Bar, Fullerton, Industry, La Habra, La Palma, Placentia, Stanton, Walnut, West Coving and Yorba Linda). Newman not only voted for and supported the gas tax, but he was also a single payer supporter. As a resident of Yorba Linda, this was important to me.
This election was a key election in California, and perhaps one of the most important, because this recall ultimately ends the Democratic Super-majority in the State Senate.
A super-majority means that the party with a super-majority controls 2/3 of the 40 seats in the state Senate, which allows that party to approve tax increases, suspend legislative rules, pass emergency legislation or overturn governor’s vetoes without ANY support from the other party. California’s Democrats have held a super-majority in the Senate, allowing them to pass the gas tax and other taxes without a single republican vote.
The recall of Newman ends this, unless the Democratic party can win back seats in November.
This recall could be a strong warning to Democrats. They cannot be as liberal as they may want to be… they can’t be far left, progressive… if so, they could also be targeted in similar republican efforts and a larger voter turnout by republicans and independents with more conservative views.
The best thing that could happen for our industry is if the democrats are held off from regaining super-majorities.
Area Congressional Resignations—Ed Royce and Darrell Issa– And How the Races Look in November
Orange County’s District 39 had a blow recently when Ed Royce announced he would be retiring his long-held conservative seat in the House of Representatives. Early on, the Democratic Party recruited and endorsed Gil Cisneros for the seat. The primary election rules say that the top two candidates of the primaries advance to the November election, regardless of party. In this seat, Republican candidate Young Kim and Democratic candidate Gil Cisneros advanced. This district includes Anaheim, Brea, Buena Park, Chino, Chino Hills, Diamond Bar, Fullerton, Industry, La Habra, La Habra Heights, Placentia, Walnut, Yorba Linda. This is also my district….
In a similar race, District 49’s Darrell Issa (South Orange County and North San Diego County) is retiring, and Republican Diane Harkey and Democrat Mike Levin will advance. This district includes Carlsbad, Dana Point, Del Mar, Encinitas, Mission Viejo, Oceanside, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Clemente, San Diego, San Juan Capistrano, Solana Beach, Vista.
I asked NAHU’s Vice President of Congressional Affairs John Green if he had any insight on these elections. As it turns out, he recently met with some of the candidates.
John met with Young Kim for a full hour over lunch and called her “outstanding” and said that he “loved her” as a candidate. According to John, she has strong knit Korean and family values which help her, and she has deep ties to the community. “Her values resonate with the people in the district.” He says “she has a strong story to tell.” She has a strong banking background, so Financial Services would interest her, as well as Foreign Affairs, as she really likes what Ed Royce was doing, and would like to carry on that legacy. John best described her as an “excellent candidate.”
John Green felt that Young Kim would be very supportive of our association’s message and would be willing to speak at our events. She expressed an interest in being invited, both before and hopefully after the November elections.
According to John Green, it was Mimi Walters that called her and urged her to run.
Regarding the Issa seat, John felt that Diane Harkey (R) was “the right fit for the seat.” He felt she had a lot of confidence in her ability to win the seat. Due to her prior work, he felt that there is enough overlap with the district to win, as they already know her in that area.
I asked John if he felt that the recall of Josh Newman and removal of the super-majority in California’s Senate could have an impact on all elections in California. According to John, “Everyone in Washington believes that all politics are local.” Far left candidates are, in the eyes of republicans, doing harm to people, which the republicans are using to their advantage.
“Because there are so many new faces in Congress, there are many new opportunities” for NAHU members to educate them in their districts about what agents do for their clients. “Members need to tell their story and show the newcomers how they can be helpful. Let them know what it’s like back home… What employers care about, what they are saying about Obamacare, group coverage, reporting requirements, etc.”
Many employers are receiving 226 J letters from the IRS from 2015 audits. Employers are panicking. They are scared that these huge penalties will hurt their businesses. The legislators need to know these things.
John encourages NAHU members involved in local business associations like NFIB, Chamber of Commerce, Rotary Clubs, etc. to invite the candidates and in-force legislators to your events. If they agree with their platforms, some may write checks to support their campaigns.
So, the bottom line is, you need to get out and vote this November, and encourage your employer clients and even employees in open enrollment meetings to get out and vote. If they don’t like the gas tax and other taxes, make sure they understand that a super-majority of one party allows the party to pass tax increases and overturn governor vetoes. Maybe if they understand that, they will be more inclined to go out and vote.
If you don’t like the idea of single payer, November is the time to get out and tell Sacramento that with your votes.
And another incentive… The Secretary of State recently declared that the gas tax repeal initiative has qualified for the November ballot.. So more incentive to get out and vote in November!
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Author’s Note: I’d like to thank David Fear Jr, Ryan Dorigan, Faith Borges ( CAHU Legislative Advocate), and NAHU’s John Green for their assistance with this article.
